By
January 03, 2012 12:00 AM
When the time is right, it doesn't matter who stands in your way.
The Patriots found that out in 2001 when they beat the 13-3 Steelers and 14-2 Rams en route to the Super Bowl. They reinforced it in 2004, beating the potent Colts, 15-1 Steelers and NFC top seed Eagles for another title.
If you've got what it takes, the opponent is meaningless.
That brings us to this New England team, which might have what it takes "? but more likely will need a few things to fall their way if they want to add a fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy to the victory chest.
In other words, Pats fans shouldn't be above rooting for some specific outcomes this weekend as the NFL Wild Card playoff games get under way.
After a bye week off to rest physically and sharpen up mentally, the Patriots are guaranteed a game against one of three opponents: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Denver. (Houston, as the No. 3 seed, can't play New England until the AFC title game.) All three possible opponents are defense-first, and all three have quarterbacks with a special quality.
But which would be the best opponent? And which is the most likely?
A breakdown:
No. 6 SEED: CINCINNATI (9-7)
Estimated chances to play New England (with win at Houston): 39 percent
Strengths: Overall team defense (fourth in yards per play allowed), pass rush, balance
Weaknesses: No particular area of dominance, subpar running game, inexperience
Outlook: This team has been pretty consistent about one thing ? against good teams, they've been competitive but not good enough to win. They lost all four of their games against AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh, lost to San Francisco and lost to Houston.
While rookie passing combo Andy Dalton to A.J. Green is the best first-year duo in decades, both the air attack and ground game are equally mundane. Still learning, they are just average on offense ? which usually means good things when measured up against the unstoppable New England offense.
Rooting for Cincinnati Saturday afternoon makes a lot of sense for Patriots fans looking for the path of least resistance, and the Bengals have a legitimate shot to win as three-point underdogs. Houston might start Jake Delhomme, a guy who was watching from the couch two months ago, and closed the season with three losses.
Even against a Cincy team that pulled off a mild upset in Houston, New England would be favored by 9-11 points in the AFC Divisional Round, and I'd sure pick them to cover.
No. 5 SEED: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)
Estimated chances to play New England (beat DEN + HOU win over CIN): 43 percent
Strengths: Experience, wide receivers, pass rush, pass defense
Weaknesses: Health, kicking game
Outlook: Obviously, this is the team that New England would love to avoid. The loss of running back Rashard Mendenhall is a blow, but not much of one ? backup Isaac Redman has looked just as good this year, and the team thrives through the air anyway.
The big question is Ben Roethlisberger, who is so good that at even 50-percent health he's still one of the best in the league. He passed it all over the Patriots in the first meeting, but since that Week 8 game Pittsburgh has only averaged 16.8 points a game. That's not going to get it done against a New England team that averaged 32.1 a week this year.
Pittsburgh has the pass rush to disturb Brady, but with the injuries and the site being switched to Foxboro, New England would still be a solid 4-6 point favorite against Pittsburgh. But the Steelers would make the fans sweat icy bullets at Gillette, almost certainly.
DENVER BRONCOS (8-8)
Estimated chances to play New England (beat PIT + HOU win over CIN): 18 percent
Strengths: Two great pass rushers (Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil), potent running game
Weaknesses: Can't throw a forward pass, inexperience, general lack of talent.
Outlook: This would be the best matchup for New England, but is also the least likely. Coming into the playoffs at 8-8 with three straight losses would be a negative even against an easy playoff opponent, but instead Denver has to take on the superior Steelers. Even with the Denver fans in full throat behind them, the Broncos are eight-point underdogs vs. Pittsburgh and for good reason.
The Broncos only played five games against teams with winning records for 2011, and lost five of them. Compare that to Pittsburgh, which went 4-4 vs. the iron and has more experience on both sides of the ball.
With Tebow Magic having been more or less debunked over the losing streak, the Broncos are now hoping their run game is enough against a Pittsburgh defense that is traditionally impenetrable. Doubtful.
If the Broncos do beat the Steelers, though, the Tebow Magic could be back in play ? and the way the Patriots have failed to play complete games, you'd have to be at least a little worried that Denver'd have a puncher's chance to beat them. But it's also hard to see the patently predictable Broncos come up with any type of new wrinkle in a rematch with a team that solidly beat them ? in Denver, no less.
Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. Email him at jcomey@s-t.com
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